8 Conclusion and outlook
referendum, Centre for Research on Direct Democracy (C2D), direct democracy, report, worldwide
In Chapter 1, we show that Switzerland continuously holds around one fifth of all national-level referendums worldwide. In addition, we discuss the large variance of rules and regulations governing the use of Swiss direct democracy. We then turn to the empirical manifestations of referendums.
Analyzing the frequency of national and cantonal Swiss referendums (Chapter 2) reveals interesting trends in the practice of direct democracy. Since the 1970s, referendums have become less frequent, especially at the cantonal level. This decrease could reflect changes in referendum laws, but it could also be suggestive of possible shifts in governance approaches. Our analysis also shows that the number of votes varies strongly from one canton to another, reflecting the diverse and idiosyncratic legal foundations on the one hand, and possible cultural differences on the other.
Besides referendum frequency, we have also identified differences in referendum types (Chapter 3). At the national level, around two-thirds of referendums are triggered by citizens collecting signatures. One third of referendums at the national level are mandatory referendums, triggered by the federal constitution. The picture is different at the cantonal level, where around two thirds of referendums are triggered by the cantonal constitutions and citizens collecting signatures play less of a role. The cantons also differ widely in the types of referendums they hold, hinting at the different legal structures that govern the use of cantonal direct democracy.
Looking at the topics being voted on (Chapter 4), we can also identify certain trends. At the national level, we can see that the relative frequency of votes on social policy has increased over time. At the cantonal level, we have identified differences in topical frequency. For example, votes on state organization, social policy and public finance are much more frequent than votes on agriculture, culture, energy, or security policy.
Concerning voter turnout (Chapter 5), we can see that both national and subnational turnout is gradually increasing since the 1970s. In addition, we have identified some cantonal differences in turnout, most notably the high turnout in Schaffhausen, which we attribute to that canton’s constitutional article that renders voting mandatory. Analyzing the congruence of national and cantonal referendums, we have found that voters participate consistently less in cantonal referendums that are not accompanied by a ballot date at the national level. This indicates a lower interest in cantonal issues than in national ones.
When it comes to referendum outcomes (Chapter 6), we see that mandatory referendums have the highest chance of success, followed by counter proposals and optional referendums. Unsurprisingly, citizens’ initiatives have the lowest chance of success at both the national and the cantonal level. Again, there are cantonal idiosyncracies that stand out, for example the widely differing success rates of optional referendums or citizens’ initiatives. We were also able to identify differences with regard to the topic being voted on. For example, referendums on the environment and living space were much less likely to succeed than referendums on foreign policy or agriculture. Nevertheless, the acceptance rate seems to hinge more on the type of referendum than on its topic.
Last but not least, we analyzed the congruence of the Swiss Federal and National Council with Swiss national referendum outcomes (Chapter 7). Here, we find some differences over time, indicating a fluctuating agreement of Swiss citizens with their government and with parliament.
For further research, we recommend exploring the underlying mechanisms behind the trends and differences identified in this report. For instance, it could be investigated to what extent the cantonal differences in turnout and acceptance rate can also be explained with cultural differences between the cantons. In addition, the effects of postal voting (Luechinger, Rosinger, and Stutzer 2007) or the double affirmative vote and the tiebreak question for citizens’ initiatives and counter proposals (Degen 2016) could be analyzed. Furthermore, one could also investigate the extent to which the number of referendums on a certain day correlates with turnout and outcome. In addition, it could be conducive to further investigate the effects of cantonal constitutional revisions on the frequency and type of referendums. As a cantonal pecularity, it could be investigated if cantonal legislative initiatives have different success rates than constitutional initiatives.
Moving forward, the RDB team plans to further improve and extend the data contained in the database. To that end, we plan to record cantonal referendums prior to 1970, and complete the Landsgemeinde votes to the dataset.