6 Outcome
referendum, Centre for Research on Direct Democracy (C2D), direct democracy, report, worldwide
6.1 National and cantonal acceptance rate by type
Figure 6.1 provides an analysis of the acceptance rates of referendums based on the national and subnational level (from 1970 onwards). The acceptance rate is defined as the number of accepted referendums as a percentage of all referendums.
The blue bars display the acceptance rates for the different types of referendums on the national level. Mandatory referendums have a very high acceptance rate of 78.1 %, reflecting the generally broad support for referendums that are required by law, such as constitutional changes. Optional referendums, which allow citizens to demand a vote on a law passed by the government, were accepted 70.1 % of the time. Counter proposals have an average acceptance rate of 58.6 %, suggesting that voters tend to approve a majority of these alternatives to citizen-initiated referendums. The by far lowest acceptance rate is seen in citizens’ initiatives, with only 10.4 % of the initiatives passing, highlighting the difficulty citizens face in getting their proposals accepted by the wider electorate.
The green bars focus on acceptance rates on the subnational level. The distribution is similar to the national level, with mandatory referendums showing the highest acceptance rate at 88.1 %, indicating strong support for proposals required by cantonal law. Counter proposals, which present alternatives to initiatives, are also widely accepted with a rate of 68.2 %. Governmental referendums have an acceptance rate of 67.0 %, slightly below counter proposals. Optional referendums see a lower acceptance rate of 54.1 %, suggesting a more divided response when subnational governments’ decisions are challenged by particular groups of the electorate. Lastly, citizens’ initiatives, as at the national level, have a very low acceptance rate at 26.8 %, although this is still higher than at the national level.
While the direct democratic system of Switzerland allows citizens to engage with the political system, hurdles remain fairly high for citizen-initiated proposals to actually pass, particularly at the national level.
6.2 Acceptance rate in cantons and by type
Figure 6.2 presents the acceptance rates of cantonal referendums across various Swiss cantons. We assume a strong relationship between the types of referendums that are voted on in a canton (see Figure 4.2) and the acceptance rate.
The canton with the highest acceptance rate is Graubünden, where 85.6 % of cantonal referendums were accepted, followed by Valais with 78.8 %. These cantons show a high level of voter approval for referendums, suggesting strong alignment between the issues brought to vote and voter preferences in these regions.
At the lower end of the spectrum, Nidwalden has the lowest acceptance rate at 50.0 %, meaning that over half of the referendums were rejected. Other cantons with relatively low acceptance rates include Vaud (55.0 %), Basel Stadt (55.6 %), and Ticino (57.6 %), indicating a higher level of voter skepticism or disagreement with referendum proposals in these areas.
Figure 6.3 depicts the cantons’ acceptance rates categorized by different referendum type. It is visible that mandatory referendums have a very high acceptance rate across all cantons. The variation is much larger for optional referendums, where the acceptance rate ranges from 26.7 % (Jura) up to 85.7 % (Aargau). For citizens’ initiatives, it is visible that the acceptance rate is low for nearly all cantons, with the exceptions of Fribourg (42.9 %), Geneva (45.7 %), and Jura (50.0 %). Overall, it is important to note that the differences in acceptance rates between cantons cannot only be explained through the use of different types of referendums. There are also important variations in acceptance rates for the same referendum types, requiring further investigation.
6.3 Acceptance rate by topic
Figure 6.4 illustrates the acceptance rate of national referendums in Switzerland, broken down by topic. The highest acceptance rates are found in referendums about agriculture and foreign policy, both with an approval rate of 53.3 %, suggesting that referendums in these areas are relatively more successful in gaining voter support compared to other topics. Similarly, referendums related to transport and infrastructure and culture, religion and media also have relatively high acceptance rates of 52.4 % and 51.9 %, respectively. In contrast, referendums concerning environment and living space have the lowest acceptance rate at 38.5 %, indicating that voters are more hesitant to approve initiatives in this area. Other topics with lower approval rates include energy (44.8 %), security policy (44.2 %), and social policy (42.7 %).
Overall, the distribution highlights varying voter preferences across different policy areas in Switzerland’s direct democratic system. However, the question arises whether the underyling differences are due to the topics themselves, or if they are more related to the types of referendums.
6.4 Acceptance rate by topic and type
Figure 6.5 displays the acceptance rate by topic and type. It is visible that it is rather the referendum types that influence the acceptance rate rather than the topics. Citizens’ initiatives for example tend to have low acceptance rates across almost all topics, while mandatory referendums seem to be rather highly accepted, irrespective of policy area. At the same time, there is a wide intra-topic variation for most topics, indicating that the topic alone does not determine or predict how many voters will approve of the measure.