9  Trend analysis

Keywords

referendum, Centre for Research on Direct Democracy (C2D), direct democracy, report, worldwide

For the trend analysis, we refer to Huntington (1993) who defined the following five time intervals of democratization and autocratization. To avoid overlapping time spans, we refer to the categorization by Lührmann and Lindberg (2019):

• First (long) wave of democratization: 1828–1925
• First reverse wave: 1926–1942
• Second wave of democratization: 1943–1960
• Second reverse wave: 1961–1974
• Third wave of democratization: 1975 until today

9.1 Number of ballot dates per wave of democratization

Counting the absolute number of ballot dates during these periods, we find the following:

• During the first wave of democratization, around 200 ballot dates took place, followed by 100 in the first reverse wave.
• During the second wave of democratization, 150 ballot dates took place, followed by 200 ballot dates in the second reverse wave.
• During the third and longest wave of democratization, almost 1000 ballot dates took place.

This shows that the number of ballot dates is not tied to the type of wave (democratization or reverse). Well into the third wave of democratizaiton, the relative (per year) number has been steadily increasing over the years, as can be seen by looking at Figure 9.1. However, the last few decades saw a downward trend:

Figure 9.1: Number of ballot dates per year in waves of democratization since 1900

9.2 Number of ballot dates per wave, top ten countries

As we can see in Table 9.1, Switzerland, Liechtenstein, New Zealand, Uruguay and Australia have held ballot dates consistently over the several waves and reverse waves. Newcomers were Ireland and Italy in the first reverse wave, Egypt in the second wave, Norfolk Island in the second reverse wave and Slovenia in the third wave.

Table 9.1: Number of ballot dates per wave of democratization since 1900, top ten countries

	1st wave	1st reverse wave	2nd wave	2nd reverse wave	3rd wave	Total
Switzerland	35	27	45	34	148	289
Liechtenstein	6	11	7	14	54	92
New Zealand	9	4	8	5	17	43
Ireland	0	1	1	3	27	32
Egypt	0	0	2	6	19	27
Italy	0	1	1	1	23	26
Uruguay	1	3	4	3	14	25
Australia	8	3	4	3	6	24
Slovenia	0	0	0	0	22	22
Norfolk Island	0	0	0	2	19	21
…	…	…	…	…	…	…
Total	88	91	147	184	1003	1513

9.3 Ballot dates in democratizing and autocratizing countries, per wave

To differentiate between democratizing and autocratizing countries, we calculate the change of the liberal democracy index by Coppedge et al. (2023) between two consecutive years. In this analysis, the number of ballot dates is reduced because the liberal democracy index is not available for many small countries or territorial units with many referendums, such as Liechtenstein or Norfolk Island.

Looking at Figure 9.2, we find that the number of ballot dates in democratizing countries¹ has risen steadily until it reached a peak in the 1990s. Since then, the number of ballot dates in democratizing countries has declined. In comparison, the number of ballot dates in autocratizing countries² remained constant until the end of the 1980ies, after which it increased and remained constant at a much higher rate than before.

Comparing the net difference between democratizers and autocratizers, there were more ballot dates in autocratizing countries during the 1st reverse wave, but not during the 2nd reverse wave. In the ongoing 3rd wave, we observed an interesting pattern:

• In the beginning of the third wave, there were almost always more ballot dates in democratizing countries.
• At the end of the 1990s and the turn of the new millennium, there were more ballot dates in autocratizing countries.
• This trend reversed in the 2000s, when democratizing countries held more ballot dates.
• Since around 2010 however, ballot dates in autocratizing countries have quite consistently outnumbered those in democratizing countries.

Figure 9.2: Number of ballot dates per year, per wave since 1900, democratizers and autocratizers

9.4 Cumulative world map

The world map below shows the cumulative number of ballot dates on a yearly basis since 1900. It is striking that referendums have spread across almost the entire world to this day. In many countries, referendum use has not been limited to just a few, and in some cases even more than 100 referendums have been held.

For ease of presentation, Switzerland and Liechtenstein were excluded from the map, as otherwise the rest of the world would not have been distinguishable in terms of colour. Furthermore, some small states and territories are not shown. Please note that the map shows country borders as of 2022. For example, referendums in Germany include those that were held in the German Reich (Weimar Republic and Third Reich), the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic.

Figure 9.3: Cumulative number of ballot dates per year since 1900 (excluding Switzerland and Liechtenstein)

Coppedge, Michael, John Gerring, Carl Henrik Knutsen, Staffan I. Lindberg, Jan Teorell, David Altman, Michael Bernhard, et al. 2023. “V-Dem Codebook V13.”

Huntington, Samuel P. 1993. The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. University of Oklahoma press.

Lührmann, Anna, and Staffan I. Lindberg. 2019. “A Third Wave of Autocratization Is Here: What Is New about It?” Democratization 26 (7): 1095–1113.

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1. Countries with a positive change in the liberal democracy index from one year to the next.

2. Countries with a negative change in the liberal democracy index from one year to the next.